Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments

Biased Beliefs about Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments

This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be balanced between heads and tails. Consistent with the Non-Belief in the Law of Large Numbers (NBLLN), participants underestimated the ...

Systematically Biased Beliefs about Political Influence: Evidence from the Perceptions of Political Influence on Policy Outcomes Survey

Manyscholars argue that retrospectivevoting is apowerful informationshortcut thatoffsetswidespreadvoter ignorance.Evendeeply ignorantvoters, it is claimed, caneffectivelypunish incumbents for badperformance and reward them if things gowell. But if voters’ understanding of which officials are responsible for which outcomes is systematically biased, retrospective voting becomes an independent sou...

Study of Random Biased d-ary Tries Model

Tries are the most popular data structure on strings. We can construct d-ary tries by using strings over an alphabet leading to d-ary tries. Throughout the paper we assume that strings stored in trie are generated by an appropriate memory less source. In this paper, with a special combinatorial approach we extend their analysis for average profiles to d-ary tries. We use this combinatorial appr...

Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information

Biased Beliefs and Imperfect Information We perform an incentivized experiment designed to assess the accuracy of beliefs about characteristics and decisions. Subjects are asked to declare some specific choices and characteristics with different levels of observability from an external point of view, and typically formed through real world experiences. From the less observable mobile phone purc...

"beliefs about Beliefs" without Probabilities